Robotaxi is coming (Ep. 760)
TLDRIn this video, Dave discusses the potential for Tesla's robo-taxi network to significantly impact its stock price by 2029. He challenges the common assumption of a slow rollout, highlighting Tesla's large fleet, the possibility of instant deployment with Tesla Insurance, and the rapid improvements in AI. Dave speculates on the timeline for the network's success, considering the pace of FSD advancements and the upcoming hardware and software updates.
Takeaways
- 🚗 Tesla aims to launch a robo taxi platform by the end of 2029, which is a significant factor in its projected $2,600 share price by then.
- 🔮 The rollout of the FSD (Full Self-Driving) or robo taxi service is expected to be slow, based on Tesla's past delays and the gradual development of autonomous capabilities.
- 🌐 Tesla's extensive fleet of vehicles worldwide could potentially allow for a rapid deployment of the robo taxi network once the FSD technology is proven to be safer than human drivers.
- 🛠 The complexity of enrolling a Tesla vehicle in the robo taxi network is considered, but Tesla has been preparing for this with its ride-hailing app development and insurance services.
- 💰 Tesla Insurance could facilitate the immediate deployment of consumer vehicles onto the robo taxi fleet, simplifying the process and reducing costs associated with third-party insurance.
- 📈 The continuous improvement in AI and FSD capabilities suggests that once the technology reaches a critical safety threshold, the robo taxi network could expand rapidly.
- 🔄 The nature of AI advancements could lead to a 'virtuous cycle' of safety improvements, potentially accelerating the adoption and expansion of the robo taxi service.
- 🤖 The timeline for the robo taxi platform's success hinges on when unsupervised FSD becomes significantly safer than human drivers, which is still uncertain.
- 🔧 Tesla is investing in hardware and training to enhance FSD performance, with plans for new inference hardware and AI chips to boost capabilities.
- 🚧 There may be a pilot program for the robo taxi service to test the waters before a full, widespread rollout, which could happen sooner than expected.
- 🌟 The potential for Tesla to deliver on its autonomous driving platform is a game-changer and will be closely monitored in the coming years.
Q & A
What is the basis for Cathie Wood's five-year price target for Tesla?
-Cathie Wood's five-year price target for Tesla is based on the assumption that Tesla will be able to release and operate a robo taxi platform with software as a service margins.
Why might people assume that the rollout of a robot taxi network will be slow?
-People might assume a slow rollout due to Tesla's past delays in fully developing its FSD software, and because other companies like Waymo have also experienced slow progress in their autonomous taxi service deployments.
What is one of the reasons given for the possibility of a faster than expected rollout of robo taxis by Tesla?
-Tesla has a large fleet of millions of vehicles that could be immediately eligible for the robot taxi network once the FSD software is ready, allowing for a rapid expansion.
How does Tesla's insurance play a role in the potential rollout of a robot taxi platform?
-Tesla Insurance could allow for the instant deployment of consumer vehicles onto the robot taxi fleet by simplifying the insurance process and potentially covering robot taxis directly.
What is the significance of AI improvements in the context of the robot taxi rollout?
-AI improvements mean that once FSD becomes safer than human drivers, it will continue to get safer at an accelerated pace, potentially speeding up the adoption and rollout of robotaxis.
What is the critical point that needs to be reached for the robot taxi platform to be rolled out?
-The critical point is when unsupervised FSD becomes significantly safer than human drivers, allowing Tesla to roll out the robot taxi platform.
How does Tesla plan to maximize the performance of its FSD software?
-Tesla plans to maximize FSD performance through hardware upgrades, training on inference hardware, and the introduction of more advanced chips like the fifth generation AI chip.
What is the potential impact of a successful robot taxi platform on Tesla's revenue and profit?
-A successful robot taxi platform could bring in a significant amount of revenue and profit, given the potential for rapid growth and the large number of vehicles that could be part of the network.
What signs might indicate that Tesla is getting closer to releasing a viable robot taxi platform?
-Signs include consistent improvements in FSD performance, the development and deployment of advanced hardware for AI, and the successful integration of Tesla Insurance for robot taxi fleet management.
What is the potential strategy for Tesla if they decide to test the waters before a full rollout of robotaxis?
-Tesla might release a pilot robotaxi program in a limited area, allowing them to access cars remotely if needed, and to test the feasibility of the service before a wider release.
Outlines
🚗 Speculations on Tesla's Robo-Taxi Impact
Dave discusses Kathy Wood's prediction of a $2,600 per share price target for Tesla by 2029, largely based on the assumption that Tesla will successfully launch a robo-taxi platform with high software as a service margins. He raises questions about the speed of the rollout of such a network, noting that many are skeptical due to Tesla's past delays in fully autonomous vehicle technology. Dave also points out that Tesla's large fleet could allow for a rapid deployment of robo-taxis and that Tesla's insurance could simplify the process of adding consumer vehicles to the network, potentially accelerating the rollout.
🤖 Analyzing the Potential Speed of Tesla's Robo-Taxi Rollout
The second paragraph delves into the possibility that Tesla's robo-taxi network could roll out faster than expected. Dave argues that Tesla's existing fleet and the company's forward-thinking, including the development of Tesla insurance, could facilitate a quick expansion. He also considers the rapid improvements in AI and the potential for FSD software to become significantly safer than human drivers, which could accelerate adoption. Dave explores the timeline for the critical point when unsupervised FSD is safer than humans and the implications for the growth of Tesla's robo-taxi network within the next five years.
🔮 Envisioning Tesla's Future with Robo-Taxis
In the final paragraph, Dave expresses excitement for the upcoming years as Tesla advances with its FSD software and robo-taxi initiatives. He suggests that if Tesla can achieve the critical milestone of making unsupervised FSD significantly safer than human drivers within the next one to two years, they could see substantial growth of their robo-taxi network. Dave also mentions Tesla's ongoing hardware improvements and the introduction of new chips that will enhance FSD capabilities, indicating a strong commitment to advancing autonomous driving technology.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡Robo taxi platform
💡FSD (Full Self-Driving)
💡Software as a Service (SaaS)
💡Rollout
💡AI improvements
💡Insurance
💡Hardware 4
💡AI5
💡Pilot program
💡Crossover point
💡Revenue and profit
Highlights
Kathy Wood predicts a $2,600 per share price target for Tesla by the end of 2029, based on the assumption of a successful robo taxi platform launch.
The rollout of FSD or robotaxi is expected to be slow due to Tesla's history of delayed expectations.
Tesla's past statements about the early arrival of robotaxis have not materialized, leading to a cautious approach.
Weo's slow autonomous taxi service rollout in cities like San Francisco and Los Angeles is compared to Tesla's potential pace.
Tesla's large fleet of vehicles could allow for a rapid deployment of the robotaxi network once FSD is ready.
The potential for consumers to easily enroll their Tesla in the robotaxi network is undervalued.
Tesla has been developing the ride-hailing app for their robotaxi platform since 2019.
Tesla Insurance could facilitate the instant deployment of consumer vehicles onto the robotaxi fleet.
AI improvements suggest that once FSD surpasses human safety levels, it will continue to improve rapidly.
The pace of AI advancements could accelerate the adoption of robotaxis as demand increases.
Tesla's potential to have a large robotaxi platform operating within 5 years depends on the timing of FSD's safety milestone.
Tesla's Hardware 4 and upcoming AI5 chip generations are expected to significantly boost FSD capabilities.
Tesla's use of video data from millions of cars on the road is a strategic move to improve FSD models.
The exact timing of when unsupervised robotaxis become viable is still uncertain.
Tesla might initially release a pilot robotaxi program with limited areas and remote access capabilities.
The next few years will be crucial as we monitor Tesla's progress with FSD software and robotaxis.
The potential for Tesla to deliver a successful autonomous platform is a game changer for the industry.